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IMF   |  
The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health.

Category:  Climate-Informed Fiscal Planning, Climate-Resilient Financial Sector, Align Policies with Paris Agreement, NDC Support and Implementation

IMF   |  
Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?

For the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, China pledged to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of GDP by 60–65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This paper develops a practical spreadsheet tool for evaluating a wide range of national level fiscal and regulatory policy options for reducing CO2 emissions in China in terms of their impacts on emissions, revenue, premature deaths from local air pollution, household and industry groups, and overall economic welfare.

Category:  Promote Carbon Pricing Measures, Climate-Informed Fiscal Planning

IMF   |  
Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks: Best Practices.

This paper provides a set of analytical tools and best practices to help policy makers understand and manage fiscal risks. Rather than seeking to provide an alternative to standard debt sustainability analysis, the paper’s focus is on how countries can assess and manage fiscal risks more broadly—including tail risks—and to better incorporate uncertainty into fiscal policy analysis. The paper is structured as follows.

Category:  Climate-Informed Fiscal Planning, Climate-Resilient Financial Sector

IMF   |  
Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications

Energy subsidies have wide-ranging economic consequences. While aimed at protecting consumers, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd-out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. Subsidies also distort resource allocation by encouraging excessive energy consumption, artificially promoting capital-intensive industries, reducing incentives for investment in renewable energy, and accelerating the depletion of natural resources.

Category:  Promote Carbon Pricing Measures, Climate-Informed Fiscal Planning